G45 Ebay Watch

Nearly $300 for what is still a $30 to $40 record? No hype on the part of the seller to attract the neo-mod DJ crowd, and yet it got a total of 17 bids. The mind boggles!
 
Is this a possible shill bid? I have had that happen to me, and man, do I get PISSED OFF. ebay protects shill bid sellers, as I have entered several grievances, and nothing ever happens. The worst is when you see the bidder (usually with no feedback) bid over your bid, THEN RETRACT IT. Classic case of shill bidding. In any case- I sold a copy in NM condition for 18 bucks last year. Jeez. I believe Garage music is on fire with new modsters who are looking for a fix of polystyrene. I remember in the early 80ts- the neo-rockabilly young-ins were paying big $ for common RAB 45's- so is this trend happening to new young vinyl collectors? One wonders.
 
There were 3 bidders prepared to pay over $100 for it, so even if one was a shill there were still two others bidding stupid amounts.
 
eBay is Unpredictable sometimes, how many times I've lost discs to insane amounts of money, and this week I end up with two copies of the same artists...here is the story, I've been looking close to 4 years for a copy of Floyd dakil four bad boy on Earth, so I found one copy on eBay this week and I immediately placed a bid, my max was 55 dollars, then a second copy surfaces this same week for a 99 dollars buy it know option so I figured 55 might be to low to win so I buy the 99 dollar one (4 Years in the waiting 100 bucks sounds good to me) go back check my eBay account and it turns out I won the first copy as well!!! For 51.

Now keep in mind it was a big want for me how rare this record really is I don't know.
 
reyes said:
eBay is Unpredictable sometimes, how many times I've lost discs to insane amounts of money, and this week I end up with two copies of the same artists...here is the story, I've been looking close to 4 years for a copy of Floyd dakil four bad boy on Earth, so I found one copy on eBay this week and I immediately placed a bid, my max was 55 dollars, then a second copy surfaces this same week for a 99 dollars buy it know option so I figured 55 might be to low to win so I buy the 99 dollar one (4 Years in the waiting 100 bucks sounds good to me) go back check my eBay account and it turns out I won the first copy as well!!! For 51.

Now keep in mind it was a big want for me how rare this record really is I don't know.
Click to expand...

That record took me friggin' forever to find! Not sure how scarce it is, have a feeling it shouldn't be as difficult to obtain as it has seemed to be in the past. Looking for a copy again as I sold mine some years ago. But right now I'm broke as a, uh, doorbell.
 
reyes said:
eBay is Unpredictable sometimes, how many times I've lost discs to insane amounts of money, and this week I end up with two copies of the same artists...here is the story, I've been looking close to 4 years for a copy of Floyd dakil four bad boy on Earth, so I found one copy on eBay this week and I immediately placed a bid, my max was 55 dollars, then a second copy surfaces this same week for a 99 dollars buy it know option so I figured 55 might be to low to win so I buy the 99 dollar one (4 Years in the waiting 100 bucks sounds good to me) go back check my eBay account and it turns out I won the first copy as well!!! For 51.

Now keep in mind it was a big want for me how rare this record really is I don't know.
Click to expand...

E-Bay is predictable in the sense that it is not immune to general laws of randomness. It is possible that the two appearances of Floyd Dakil on Earth within a brief period, but not otherwise for a long time, is a "random burst," first referenced by Siméon-Denis Poisson (1781–1840). You may find the attached article of interest (presuming math is your second passion after collecting g45 records). :%: http://www.stat.ualberta.ca/people/schmu/preprints/poisson.pdf
 
TheOriginal1966BadApple said:
E-Bay is predictable in the sense that it is not immune to general laws of randomness. It is possible that the two appearances of Floyd Dakil on Earth within a brief period, but not otherwise for a long time, is a "random burst," first referenced by Siméon-Denis Poisson (1781–1840). You may find the attached article of interest (presuming math is your second passion after collecting g45 records). :%: http://www.stat.ualberta.ca/people/schmu/preprints/poisson.pdf
Click to expand...

AWESOME!!

I am currently working on a new probability distribution that I can apply to eBay to predict when specific G45s will appear for auction. Currently having trouble incorporating the Italian eBay site into the mix. I also plan to include near G45s eventually, but I think that will need to have a wider confidence interval.

Next step will be the severity component to project selling price.
 
When I put an unknown 45 on ebay and it gets attention, and sells for big money, other 45's appear by the same artist immediately following a successful closing price- and these miraculously just appear from random collections- from random locations, by random people. What happens is that Collectors Frenzy publishes the daily top 25 (which is random-LOL) and those collectors see a golden opportunity to cash in on the latest fad. Although the Poisson Approximation is a pretty cool study, I tend to see copycat sales, in lieu of true random activity.
The same exact thing happened to me with a Bruce Gist & the Invaders on Conquest as what happened with the Floyd Dakil, I bid on one, after waiting for over 15 years to FIND one, and the same week, one appeared @ set sale @ 75.00, while I bid on the one for 60.00. Got them both. Most likely the only 2 known copies, except for the 1 that was on the White Collector CD! I await the probability distribution study you will publish- I find it pretty fascinating and what a kick in the eye if it is a good indication of the G45's - wouldn't that be cool to predict the next John English III or Oryln 45!
Incidentally, and this is a total random phenomenon- I found the Epics on Fuller here in WV and sold a copy on ebay about 1 month ago, and just today, my wife called me from the Goodwill, and told me she found another copy.....! Until the first copy, I had never heard of this 45, and it's pretty good!
 
Historically, whenever a seller quotes past sale prices, they receive only a fraction of what the record can sell for. Never quote a past sale price in the description and the record will sell for what the competitive market dictates. If seller found this at a sale, for 50 cents, say, they should start the bid low and watch the drooling masses bid for this at the last few seconds. Starting high, this may sell for his start price only- which is still really good, but it drives away the potential bidders who get caught up in the game, and the want becomes a NEED. Just addin' my 2 cents to help the seller out. This is a great record- where the heck are the rest of them??? They musta pressed up at least 500...?
 
I don't think this is a "buffed" 45, as it was just found in the wild maybe two weeks ago along with the David & Jonathan Sabra label 45. Seller contacted me prior to listing it on ebay.
 
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